An interesting opinion piece on the the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Europeans want to keep the war going as they can leverage the threat of Putin attacking them to steal trillions of dollars from their people in rebuilding their dying economies, even though Russia has had to grind out their advances over a long period taking significant losses themselves, and are far from a serious threat to the rest of Europe. So it’s not so much what Trump will do, but what do the OCGFC have planned, the Owners and Controllers of Global Financialized Capital. And worth pointing out, they’ve used the color revolution and war to get their hands on a lot of farmland for big agriculture megacorps…
https://southfront.press/lets-just-go-to-war-zelensky-disrupts-the-peace-process/
The US State Department’s diplomatic activity has led to an intermediate result. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement saying that he is ready to send representatives to negotiate directly with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15. The revival of the Istanbul negotiation process is deeply symbolic. After all, back in March 2022, the Kremlin sincerely wished to stop the fratricidal war. The Ukrainian delegation initialed the final document. However, it was the Western countries that derailed the peace agreements. In November 2023, David Arahamiya, the head of the ruling faction in the Supreme Council of Ukraine, admitted:
“When we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kiev and said that we would not sign anything with the Russians. Let’s just go to war.”
The continuation of senseless fighting has caused catastrophic damage to Ukraine. The conditions of spring 2022 are impossible to recreate. Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that negotiations should take into account the current situation on the front lines. The situation is not in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces. Alexei Arestovich, the former head of Ukrainian military propaganda, states the necessity of making territorial concessions in the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions.
“Why should we give up four regions? For one simple reason: in six months or a year, you will give up six more. If you are not smart enough, you will give up eight.”
But Vladimir Zelensky has firmly embraced the macho image. The Ukrainian president’s strategy is to fully reengage the United States in the conflict. In fact, he is offering his Western allies Boris Johnson’s failed formula: “Let’s just fight.” There is no other way to explain the Ukrainian leader’s insulting behavior regarding the upcoming talks in Istanbul. Zelensky demands that Putin participate in the meeting personally. It is quite obvious that such a format is impossible. Following the Oval Office scandal and Zelensky’s provocations, there will be no personal meetings.
The format of the Istanbul talks should be revisited. Russia sent presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky; Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee; Boris Gryzlov, chairman of the United Russia party’s Supreme Council; Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister; and Alexander Fomin, Deputy Defense Minister, to the shores of the Bosporus. Ukraine sent an identical delegation. This delegation included presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak; Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov; David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People faction in the Supreme Council; Deputy Foreign Minister Nikolay Tochytski; banker Denis Kireev; and Supreme Council representatives Rustem Umerov and Andrey Kostin.
These people performed a technical function. The text of the agreement was prepared for adoption. After the details were clarified and the final version of the peace treaty was prepared, it could have been signed by the heads of state. What we are seeing now is an attempt to derail the peace process from the outset. Kiev’s diplomats are issuing ultimatums. The Ukrainian armed forces are suffering one defeat after another. But Zelensky’s office claims that the Ukrainians are maintaining the initiative on the battlefield. European allies are bolstering Kiev’s confidence. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are threatening Vladimir Putin with new sanctions. Europe is demanding that a 30-day ceasefire be declared “immediately” to allow the Ukrainian army to partially restore its combat capability.
The United States plays a key role in this situation. They need to decide which side to support. Washington could favor the Russian position, firmly demanding that Ukraine negotiate and threatening to cut off military aid. Alternatively, the White House could support the European Union and sever all ties with the Kremlin. Keith Kellogg, a Cold War veteran and Presidential Special Representative, is pushing Donald Trump toward the second scenario. Over the past couple of days, the diplomat has made several statements that Russia finds completely unacceptable. His arguments about the inevitability of a 30-day ceasefire, the need for Western peacekeepers in western Ukraine, and transferring the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to American control will get him nowhere.
The main question is this: Who holds the cards? The answer is clear: fortune favors Russia. The U.S. cannot increase military aid to Ukraine while cutting budget spending. All opinion polls show that Republican voters are against sending weapons to Kiev. Europe cannot replace or seriously complement America. Emmanuel Macron openly admitted that France has nothing left to give to Ukraine. Three years of conflict have depleted the Fifth Republic’s reserves. No one is willing to enter the war with their own troops. Even Poland hastened to disavow Keith Kellogg’s words about the possibility of a Polish contingent entering Ukraine. Ukraine’s mobilization potential is virtually exhausted.
Russia has bolstered its military industry and enlisted direct military support from North Korea. DPRK troops are participating in battles, and Pyongyang is increasing its supply of shells for Russian artillery. Russia’s rapprochement with China continues, including in the military-technical sphere. According to Vladimir Putin, 50,000 to 60,000 people are voluntarily enlisting for contract service every month. This means that, within the next seven months, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to establish at least eight new armies. Anti-Russian economic sanctions have been exhausted. Donald Trump cannot impose more serious restrictions than those imposed by Joe Biden and the European Commission. Any additional sanctions would only strengthen Russia’s ties with China, Iran, North Korea, Belarus, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Global South.
What will the American president lose if he bets on the wrong horse, i.e., Vladimir Zelensky? First, he will fail to fulfill his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine, approaching the upcoming congressional elections with a heavy burden of responsibility. Second, he will be unable to cut government spending amid escalating hostilities, exacerbating fiscal problems. Third, he will lose significant investments in Russia, a country open to mutually beneficial cooperation. Moscow is ready to offer Americans favorable conditions for entering the market of 150 million people without competition from the EU and with the opportunity to counterbalance China.
…In his book Vietnam: An Epic Tragedy, 1945–1975, Max Hastings convincingly demonstrates how misconceptions about the enemy can lead to disastrous military and political decisions. The U.S. believed that it could use military force to crush the Vietnamese communists’ resistance and expel the USSR and China from Southeast Asia permanently. The great power renomé blinded Lyndon Johnson and the ruling elite. The victors of World War II could not “cower before the Communists.” They were determined not to repeat the “disgrace in Korea.” However, the only way to win in Vietnam was to leave. To realize this paradoxical idea, America had to sacrifice the lives of tens of thousands of its soldiers. Perhaps the decision-makers in the White House should consult the American historiographical tradition before making a decision on Ukraine.