This is positive news (article at bottom). Though, rising housing prices is also forcing a lot of people to relocate to areas that are reasonably affordable, and all those aren’t necessarily conservative transplants who could skew numbers in the long run. I’ve noticed I-25 between Cheyenne and Fort Collins is busier than it used to be, and I have to think we’re seeing more commuters. And between Denver and Fort Collins up to Wellington looks a lot busier during commute time as well. And that would point to affordable housing being a motivator as who wants to waste so much time in their day commuting long distances. Going back to the early 2000’s there were people commuting from the Sacramento area to the San Francisco Bay area due to housing prices, and long commutes are a normal thing in California with vast urban areas and huge interstate freeways.
Republicans looking to get away from more liberal states are choosing Wyoming, Montana and other Western states, and they’ve turned some already conservative states even a deeper shade of red. The migration may have helped Republicans dominate Election Day.
By David Madison
Newcomers moving into politically red states such as Wyoming, Montana and Idaho are more likely to be Republicans, according to voter and state migration data. Many them are moving out of blue states like Washington, Colorado and California, motivated by a desire to live in a place where a majority of voters are Republicans.
It wasn’t always that way.
In the 2020 election cycle, the trend was blue voters moving into red and purple states. This year, voter data and election results show conservatives leaving blue states for more politically like-minded places.
The migration may have helped Republicans retake the U.S. Senate, as President-elect Donald Trump’s overall appeal inspired straight-ticket voting in Montana and Wyoming, according to a GOP official in Billings.
The Newcomers
In Wyoming, many of the new Republican votes migrated in from one neighboring state.
Data service provider L2 tracks the movement of registered voters around the country, and its most recent database shows 2,230 former Coloradans settled in Wyoming between Jan. 1, 2020, and Oct. 1, 2024.
L2 tracked 9,717 newcomers to the Cowboy State during that time, and reports that 7,507 were registered Republicans, 933 were registered Democrats and 1,277 were listed as “other.”
Paul Westcott, executive vice president of L2, said Republicans relocating to Wyoming and other Rocky Mountain states with majority Republican populations is part of a trend that diverges from what was revealed by the migration trends around the 2020 election.
That year, swing states like Georgia and Arizona swung in support of Joe Biden, as Democrats relocated to warmer climates from places like New York and Illinois.
“Then what we saw post-COVID was there still was that movement that still exists. But it seemed to be supplanted in a lot of places by people looking to move to their own cohort. Basically, ‘I’m moving out of my blue state,’” explained Wescott in a phone interview from his office in Philadelphia. L2 is headquartered in Bothell, Washington.
Beyond Colorado, the next states most Wyoming newcomers hail from are California, Washington, Texas, Oregon, Utah and Montana.
“In Wyoming, just to give you an idea, people who have moved in the last four years, and I look at the age range, and it’s over 50% are over the age of 55. So it is older,” said Westcott. “Then let’s see, ethnicity is going to be 83% white with only 3% Hispanic and 0.082% African American. So relatively small numbers there.”
Red Trends in Montana
Montana witnessed similar trends post-COVID, observed Pam Purinton, chair of the Yellowstone County Republican Central Committee.
Purinton, a former Billings city councilwoman whose grandkids know her as “Grammy Pammy,” said she initially worried about California watering down Montana’s political redness.
Not the case, said Purinton, sharing a story about a conversation she had with Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, an outspoken conservative.
Purinton told Knudsen she worried transplanted California Republicans would be too moderate.
“Absolutely not,” Knudsen said. “They are diehard conservatives.”
“We had a great turnout this year,” added Purinton, who credits California newcomers for helping increase straight-ticket voting for conservative causes.
“They’ll say, ‘I’m from California, but don’t hold that against me,’” joked Purinton, who welcomed some as volunteers this election season. “They helped with precinct representatives, which is good.”
Former — some say “recovering” — Californians are the second largest group of post-Covid newcomers to Montana. The biggest block of transplants moved to Montana from Washington—2,579 new GOP supporters, compared to 1,993 voters who were registered as Democrats before they moved.
The “out-of-stater” label gets thrown around in Montana politics, said Purinton, and it hasn’t helped Democrats. Montana Dems like to remind voters that Gov. Greg Gianforte spent a lot of time in New Jersey, Congressman Matt Rosendale is nicknamed “Maryland Matt” and Congressman-elect Troy Downing is a former ballet dancer from Southern California.
In Montana’s expensive and caustic senate race this year, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester explicitly called his opponent Tim Sheehy a “rich out-of-stater.” Tester lost after three terms in the Senate, tipping majority control back to Republicans.
When candidates do that, said Purinton, “You’re going to lose half the room” because there are so many newcomers to Montana.
Half The Room
Steve Galvin is a 73-year-old retired entrepreneur and manager who helped import the California-based Bob’s Big Boy restaurants to Montana back in the late 1960s.
Galvin spent most of his career in California, where he grew increasingly frustrated with state government, or “the guys under the dome” in Sacramento, as Galvin called them during a recent phone interview.
“They have a full-time Legislature in California as opposed to Montana, which means these guys are looking for trouble all the time because that’s what they do. They don’t have a job,” continued Galvin, who moved to Montana in 2021, partially to get away from the “crazy” politics of his home state. He joked that lawmakers in California won’t help a small pie business get off the ground, but they will pass a law requiring a certain number of strawberries in every strawberry pie.
“Just stupid stuff,” said Galvin, who now lives in Billings.
The Big Boy he opened on Grand Avenue is gone, replaced by “a giant Starbucks,” said Galvin.
Leading up to Election Day, Galvin felt singled out by political advertising blaming rich out-of-staters for driving up the cost of living in Montana.
“I found that insulting. I am not driving up real estate prices. I made some investments in Montana and I brought money in from California, true,” said Galvin. “The guys I made the investments with in Montana didn’t say, ‘Oh, you’re California, your money’s dirty, go away.’ They said, ‘Jeez, Steve, give me that check. I’ll put it right here in my bank account.’’’
Galvin said he voted for Sheehy and Trump because he likes their free-market approach to managing the economy—and it needs managing, insisted Galvin.
“Bankruptcies are going up, big company bankruptcies,” remarked Galvin, referring to what’s happening in Montana and beyond.
In the second quarter of 2024, Montana experienced a significant rise in bankruptcy filings, with a percentage growth of 62.3%, the highest in the Mountain region. That’s according to G2 Risk Solutions, a management firm, and CUInsight, a news source read by lenders at credit unions.
From his new residence in Billings, Galvin sees distress signals in the economy and said he’s not actively investing his California dollars into Montana.
On the bright side, according to the state’s Department of Labor and Industry, Montana’s unemployment rate remained at 3.1% in July, continuing a record streak of 37 consecutive months at or below 3.4%. In contrast, the national unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
“I think we’re getting Trump in there just in time,” said Galvin.
Rare Crossover Voters
Montana’s population is projected to grow by 5.2% from 2020 to 2025, according to two online data sources, Aterio and NCHstats.
Whether from Colorado, Washington or California, L2 data offers campaign managers and marketers a detailed window into what motivates all those new voters. Cowboy State Daily used the L2 database to track down the rarest species of GOP transplants from California—a crossover voter who supported Tester’s campaign.
Erik Stephen Schiefen is a 54-year-old semi-retired plumber who relocated to Sheridan, Montana, and registered to vote in the state in January.
Schiefen moved to care for aging parents and to, “Go about my own life and not have to be bothered by the crap in California. I don’t miss the liberal crap and Teslas and the foofoo, you know, Trader Joe’s stores where everything has to be organic.”
“I’m a very staunch Republican,” explained Schiefen, who tried unsuccessfully to convince others in his family to support a Democrat this year, mostly because of Tester’s work on veterans issues.
“I’m a Ronald Reagan Republican,” insisted Schiefen.
He’s also a frustrated Republican. Schiefen expressed himself in ways that are not captured in datasets, saying he was fed up with “television ads and all the slander.”
Offering sentiment that’s hard to pin a number on, Schiefen added, “I wish there was somebody who was actually willing to stand on their policies and their beliefs instead of trying to put the other person down all the time.”