By Andrew Korybko via substack,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is recalibrating its balancing act within the RIC triangle.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Reuters<\/a> reported that Russia agreed to supply India with nearly half a million barrels of discounted oil a day for 10 years in a deal that\u2019s worth $13 billion a year <\/strong>at today\u2019s prices and amounts to 0.5% of global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It follows Defense Minister Singh\u2019s visit to Moscow where he praised their friendship as “higher than the highest mountain and deeper than the deepest ocean<\/a>\u201d and precedes Putin\u2019s trip to India<\/a> next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is a historic deal with many implications<\/strong>, the top five most significant of which are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Reliable Revenue & Accelerated Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Russia will receive reliable budgetary revenue while India\u2019s growth will accelerate from the large-scale import of discounted oil, thus enabling the first to better manage sanctions pressure while the second will approach its goal of becoming the world\u2019s third-largest economy at a faster pace. This decade-long arrangement also creates a solid basis for diversifying from their strategic partnership\u2019s hitherto\u00a0military<\/a>–centricity<\/a>, and it\u2019s possible that some of Russia\u2019s forthcoming profits could be reinvested inside of India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Russia\u2019s South Asian Energy Pivot<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The above mentioned trend is part of Russia\u2019s South Asia energy pivot, which also includes Afghan and Pakistani dimensions that were elaborated on\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0in terms of the larger context. The Kremlin plans to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China by relying on the South Asian market, with India at its core, as a counterbalance.\u00a0RT<\/a>\u00a0importantly informed their audience that \u201cThe new deal reportedly accounts for roughly a half of Rosneft\u2019s seaborne oil exports from Russian ports.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. OPEC+ Probably Won\u2019t Mind All That Much<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Oilprice.com<\/a>\u00a0wrote that the deal \u201ccould cause friction among OPEC+ members as Russia encroaches on Gulf producers\u2019 market share in India\u201d, but while Russia is now India\u2019s top oil supplier at around one-third of its needs, that still leaves the other two-thirds for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to fill. Moreover, Russia isn\u2019t their competitor in the ASEAN, European, or Japanese markets, those two Gulf Kingdoms\u2019 leaders have excellent personal ties with Putin, and their bilateral relations with Russia are close too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4. Trump Isn\u2019t Expected To Sanction India<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It was assessed last month that \u201cTrump Can Repair The Damage That Biden Dealt To Indo-US Ties<\/a>\u201d due to his incoming Indophilic team, hence why he isn\u2019t expected to sanction India for this historic deal. His grand strategic goal is to \u201cun-unite<\/a>\u201d Russia and China in order to more effectively contain the latter, to which end it serves US interests for Russia to rely more on India as a counterweight to China. If he imposes any oil-related sanctions, it might be on China\u00a0to reduce Russia\u2019s supply to it<\/a>, not on India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5. China\u2019s Basement-Bargain Price Demands Backfired<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz%20%2810%29_5.jpg?itok=KXO-ygL-\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n
![<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nReuters<\/a> reported that Russia agreed to supply India with nearly half a million barrels of discounted oil a day for 10 years in a deal that\u2019s worth $13 billion a year <\/strong>at today\u2019s prices and amounts to 0.5% of global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIt follows Defense Minister Singh\u2019s visit to Moscow where he praised their friendship as “higher than the highest mountain and deeper than the deepest ocean<\/a>\u201d and precedes Putin\u2019s trip to India<\/a> next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThis is a historic deal with many implications<\/strong>, the top five most significant of which are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n1. Reliable Revenue & Accelerated Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nRussia will receive reliable budgetary revenue while India\u2019s growth will accelerate from the large-scale import of discounted oil, thus enabling the first to better manage sanctions pressure while the second will approach its goal of becoming the world\u2019s third-largest economy at a faster pace. This decade-long arrangement also creates a solid basis for diversifying from their strategic partnership\u2019s hitherto\u00a0military<\/a>–centricity<\/a>, and it\u2019s possible that some of Russia\u2019s forthcoming profits could be reinvested inside of India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n2. Russia\u2019s South Asian Energy Pivot<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe above mentioned trend is part of Russia\u2019s South Asia energy pivot, which also includes Afghan and Pakistani dimensions that were elaborated on\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0in terms of the larger context. The Kremlin plans to preemptively avert potentially disproportionate dependence on China by relying on the South Asian market, with India at its core, as a counterbalance.\u00a0RT<\/a>\u00a0importantly informed their audience that \u201cThe new deal reportedly accounts for roughly a half of Rosneft\u2019s seaborne oil exports from Russian ports.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n3. OPEC+ Probably Won\u2019t Mind All That Much<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nOilprice.com<\/a>\u00a0wrote that the deal \u201ccould cause friction among OPEC+ members as Russia encroaches on Gulf producers\u2019 market share in India\u201d, but while Russia is now India\u2019s top oil supplier at around one-third of its needs, that still leaves the other two-thirds for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to fill. Moreover, Russia isn\u2019t their competitor in the ASEAN, European, or Japanese markets, those two Gulf Kingdoms\u2019 leaders have excellent personal ties with Putin, and their bilateral relations with Russia are close too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n4. Trump Isn\u2019t Expected To Sanction India<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nIt was assessed last month that \u201cTrump Can Repair The Damage That Biden Dealt To Indo-US Ties<\/a>\u201d due to his incoming Indophilic team, hence why he isn\u2019t expected to sanction India for this historic deal. His grand strategic goal is to \u201cun-unite<\/a>\u201d Russia and China in order to more effectively contain the latter, to which end it serves US interests for Russia to rely more on India as a counterweight to China. If he imposes any oil-related sanctions, it might be on China\u00a0to reduce Russia\u2019s supply to it<\/a>, not on India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n5. China\u2019s Basement-Bargain Price Demands Backfired<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe basement-bargain prices that China\u00a0reportedly began to demand<\/a>\u00a0after February 2022 in exchange for clinching a deal on the long-negotiated Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline shocked Russian policymakers since they conformed to hitherto unbelievable Western reports about that country\u2019s exploitative nature. To be sure, relations are at an historic high and bilateral trade has never been better, but this bitter experience led to the Kremlin preferring India over China as Russia\u2019s most strategic energy partner.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\nThe historic Russian-Indian oil deal is a new milestone in these two\u2019s decades-long strategic partnership. It proves that their relations are enduring and expanding in spite of external pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\nJust as importantly, it also disproves speculation that Russia is leaning towards China at India\u2019s expense in the RIC triangle, which forms the core of BRICS<\/a> and the SCO.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTo the contrary, Russia is now very clearly leaning closer towards India, though this isn\u2019t at China\u2019s expense nor will it ever be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This looks like a piece of the deal for Russia to abandon Assad in Syria, with the west agreeing not to interfere by sanctioning India. https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/five-takeaways-historic-russian-indian-oil-deal By Andrew Korybko via substack, Russia is recalibrating its balancing act within the RIC triangle. Reuters reported that Russia agreed to supply India with nearly half a million barrels of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world"],"blocksy_meta":[],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Jason","author_link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/author\/jturning\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9769"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9770,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9769\/revisions\/9770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}](\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz%20%2810%29_5.jpg?itok=KXO-ygL-\"){kind=link}