By Jack McGeever<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hundreds of billions of dollars in apartment debt is coming due as property owners confront higher borrowing costs, weaker rents in some markets and refinancing terms that could force borrowers to inject fresh cash or sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Roughly $297 billion in multifamily mortgages are scheduled to mature in 2026, representing about 13% of the $2.3 trillion in multifamily loans tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association<\/a>. Another $223 billion comes due in 2027, followed by roughly $237 billion in both 2028 and 2029.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The stakes extend beyond property owners. In markets where landlords cannot raise rents enough to offset higher financing and operating costs, the pressure could instead show up through weaker property cash flow, reduced spending on maintenance or renovations, property sales and, in some cases, delinquency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The bigger concern, however, may not be the amount of debt maturing but whether apartment properties financed when rates were much lower can support the same amount of borrowing under current market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFrom our perspective, the volume of multifamily debt coming due isn\u2019t the core issue. The refinance gap is,\u201d a Trepp spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation in emailed comments. \u201cMany owners who borrowed when rates were low can still cover their interest payments but can\u2019t refinance at maturity without putting in significant new equity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The pressure is particularly concentrated among interest-only and floating-rate loans, according to Trepp. Multifamily commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies rose 46 basis points to 7.69% in July as loans in Ohio, Texas and New York became delinquent, according to a Trepp report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trepp separately reported<\/a> that 30 multifamily CMBS loans totaling $509.3 million became newly delinquent during July. Ten loans totaling $214.1 million were backed by older Sun Belt properties, where declining occupancy contributed to stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni told the DCNF that higher interest rates are only part of the challenge facing apartment owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn addition [to] the challenge of higher interest rates, multifamily property owners also face challenging fundamentals with flat to declining effective rents in a number of markets, particularly in the sunbelt and elevated vacancy rates,\u201d Fratantoni said. \u201cAt the same time, expenses including insurance costs are high. This pressure on NOI is reflected in lower property values relative to a few years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Net operating income, or NOI, is the income a property generates after operating expenses but before debt payments and taxes. Falling NOI can lower a property\u2019s value and reduce the amount lenders are willing to refinance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cLenders are requiring more equity in situations where values have declined, and also are carefully underwriting to ensure there is sufficient debt service coverage,\u201d Fratantoni said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The refinancing crunch follows the disruption of the COVID-19 era, when federal eviction moratoriums temporarily limited landlords\u2019 ability to remove tenants for nonpayment. Congress imposed a 120-day moratorium in 2020 on certain federally backed properties, followed by a broader Centers for Disease Control and Prevention moratorium that the Supreme Court<\/a> ended in August 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The moratoriums affected rental collections for some owners, but the more direct driver of today\u2019s refinancing squeeze is that loans originated or extended during the low-rate period must now be financed at substantially higher borrowing costs. The higher-rate environment also pushed some loans that otherwise may have refinanced into extensions or modifications, leaving more debt to mature in subsequent years, according to the MBA<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trepp\u2019s research illustrates the gap. An analysis of second-half 2026 CMBS maturities found that about 52% of the multifamily balance in its sample would require some amount of borrower cash to refinance under Trepp\u2019s assumptions, while 41% would require an equity contribution of at least 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The risk was disproportionately concentrated in interest-only loans, which do not pay down principal during the loan term. Trepp found that across property types, 80% of the interest-only loan balance in its sample would require some new equity to refinance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A more recent Trepp analysis<\/a> found that 36% of CMBS hard maturities due in 2026 carried debt yields at or below 8%, a segment the firm identified as more likely to face refinancing friction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For apartment owners, however, the consequences of refinancing pressure will differ significantly by property and market. Trepp told the DCNF that landlords in areas with substantial new apartment supply often cannot simply pass higher costs on to renters, meaning the strain can instead appear through weaker cash flow and reduced capital spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fratantoni cautioned that refinancing stress does not necessarily mean trouble for tenants, particularly if a property changes hands at a price that reflects current financing conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf a property gets a new owner, who purchases at the current market value and gets financing at current market rates underwritten to current market conditions, the property, and hence the renters, should be in good shape,\u201d Fratantoni said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The strain in commercial real estate also comes as households and businesses carry historically large amounts of debt. U.S. household debt stood at $18.8 trillion at the end of the second quarter, including $13.1 trillion in mortgage balances, $1.26 trillion in credit card debt and $1.71 trillion in auto loans, according<\/a> to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Other forms of consumer financing have also expanded. Sixteen percent of adults used buy now, pay later financing in 2025, up from 10% in 2021, while 26% of users reported making at least one late payment during the year, according to the Federal Reserve<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Apartment](\"https:\/\/dailycallernewsfoundation.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/House_for_Sale_-_Selling_a_House_-_51245764474.jpg\")