{"id":15872,"date":"2026-02-20T09:51:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T16:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/?p=15872"},"modified":"2026-02-20T09:54:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T16:54:16","slug":"is-jane-street-manipulating-bitcoin-the-viral-theory-explained","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/20\/is-jane-street-manipulating-bitcoin-the-viral-theory-explained\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When the big Wall Street firms started offering Bitcoin<\/a> ETFs and their variations, in came paper Bitcoin trading and the shenanigans that let bankers manipulate the system. Of interest is Jane Street which seems to be consistently selling at the opening of the markets destroying people long with leverage, and then buying later at a lower price. Throw in the other Wall Street firms buying Bitcoin and giving returns to stockholders as a business model, and a lot of Bitcoin is being bought by bankers cheaply with market manipulation. Throw in the propaganda megacorps trashing Bitcoin for gold or stocks to limit its monetary use adoption, and it’s to shake out people that don’t fully understand Bitcoin so the bankers can buy it while keeping it lower. And also there are a lot of Bitcoin loan businesses that started up before this organized crash with the incentive for you to not have to pay capital gains from selling your Bitcoin, so as the price dropped they had to cover their Bitcoin loan collateral value or they take their Bitcoin. And even Russia and Sverbank were jumping into the Bitcoin loan space, which are all schemes to capture more Bitcoin. Consequently, Bitcoin is the only real money with limited supply and deflationary over the long term minus these manipulation periods, so once the financial crash kicks off and they lose control, it will really increase as people flood into a safe place to put their money, and to transact as the fiat dollar and many currencies crash with hyperinflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/news\/newsbtc:f65a83ede094b:0-is-jane-street-manipulating-bitcoin-the-viral-theory-explained\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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Feb 18, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A fresh round of Bitcoin market-manipulation chatter is ricocheting through crypto X after Jane Street added 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock\u2019s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in Q4 2025, bringing its reported position to 20,315,780 shares. Speculators tie this disclosure to a long-running rumor about a daily \u201c10AM\u201d sell program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Jane Street Manipulating The Bitcoin Price?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The allegation is simple and sticky: the same sophisticated desk \u201caccumulating\u201d IBIT is also supposedly the desk leaning on BTC and BTC-linked vehicles at a predictable time each morning to create better entry prices. The rebuttal, from market structure veterans, is equally blunt: you\u2019re reading a market maker\u2019s inventory like it\u2019s a directional bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BullTheory framed the 13F as an accumulation story, writing that Jane Street bought 7,105,206 IBIT shares \u201cworth $276 million\u201d in Q4 2025 and \u201cnow holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million,\u201d before adding: \u201cThis is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily \u201810 AM\u2019 manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The screenshot circulating alongside the claim shows Jane Street Group LLC listed with a 13F source tag, an options indicator marked \u201cY,\u201d a position of 20,315,780, and a latest change of 7,105,206, filed 12\/31\/25. That \u201cY\u201d is the detail critics keep coming back to because it\u2019s the quickest tell that the position may not be what the headline suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Bull Theory<\/p>\n\n\n\n

@BullTheoryio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT<\/a> shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily \u201c10 AM\u201d manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower. pic.twitter.com\/NFC5r5hHUn<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feb 16, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Milk Road amplified the \u201c10am theory,\u201d calling it \u201cpersistent whispers\u201d about \u201ccertain institutional trading desks running a very specific\/shady playbook\u2026 (Jane Street included.).\u201d The account described an alleged routine: \u201cAround 10 AM ET, right at the US stock market open, large sell volumes hit BTC and related ETF shares. This creates panic \u2192 triggers liquidations of leveraged longs \u2192 and exploits thin liquidity pockets. Then the same firms allegedly buy back at lower prices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milk Road added that the pattern \u201capparently emerged prominently in early Nov 2025,\u201d showed up in Q2 and Q3, and \u201chas continued into early 2026,\u201d while stressing: \u201cTo be clear \u2013 these are unverified rumors circulating in the community.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not everyone bought the internal logic even on its own terms. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost responded with the question many traders would ask first: \u201cIn this rumor, when is Jane Street supposed to have bought large amounts of BTC so as not to be selling at a loss right now\u201d. Milk Road replied that the rumor \u201csuggests they\u2019d accumulated in the lead up,\u201d then used existing holdings to \u201csell\/dump prices \u2192 buy in size at a lower price,\u201d adding again: \u201ctotally unverified.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Makers: Inventory Isn\u2019t A Thesis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strongest pushback focused on mechanics, not vibes. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, argued the viral framing misreads what a 13F is showing in the first place:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis isn\u2019t correct. You\u2019re misinterpreting the 13F. Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBI. They aren\u2019t \u2018holding\u2019 as a bet. The \u2018Y\u2019 in the options column next to that $5.7B value confirms this is a delta-hedged position.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LaValle added that the Q4 increase could be operational rather than directional: \u201cThey added 7 million shares in Q4 to manage the record volatility and creation\/redemption demand. As a market maker, they hold these shares to balance the risk of the options they write. It has nothing to do with conviction or some mysterious price manipulation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former hedge fund manager Michael Green struck a similar note, calling the discourse \u201cpainful\u201d and pointing to what isn\u2019t visible in the filing: \u201cJane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options (on IBIT) and futures positions. They are certainly not \u2018accumulating\u2019 a position in Bitcoin. That\u2019s how market making works.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others put it more sharply. Former prop trader Ryan Scott (\u201cHorse\u201d) warned: \u201cAnyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be \u2018You\u2019ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported\u2019 Jane Street is not longing Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nik Bhatia boiled it down to incentives: \u201cJane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the market-maker explanation appears more consistent with how these positions are typically managed, while the \u201c10AM slam\u201d narrative remains, at this stage, just that, a theory circulating on crypto X rather than a verified claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At press time, BTC traded at $68,107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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When the big Wall Street firms started offering Bitcoin ETFs and their variations, in came paper Bitcoin trading and the shenanigans that let bankers manipulate the system. Of interest is Jane Street which seems to be consistently selling at the opening of the markets destroying people long with leverage, and then buying later at a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tech","category-world"],"blocksy_meta":[],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Jason","author_link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/author\/jturning\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15872"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15872\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15878,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15872\/revisions\/15878"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}