Low cattle numbers have resulted in Wyoming ranchers finally turning a profit after years of breaking even. \u201cThis is the first run we\u2019ve had of really solid profits for a number of years,\u201d rancher and state Sen. Ogden Driskill told Cowboy State Daily.<\/h5>\n\n\n\n
By Kate Meadows<\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. cattle population hit a 75-year record low last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. But Wyoming cattle experts say that\u2019s not all bad news. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The report was a surprise to cattle ranchers across the country, said Jeff Berry, who works for Producers Livestock, a marketing cooperative in Cheyenne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cA lot of people were expecting there would be a slight uptick,\u201d Berry told Cowboy State Daily. \u201cThe fact that it was lower was quite surprising to the industry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n State Sen. Ogden Driskill, R-Devils Tower, also a rancher, indicated optimism over the report, saying lower cattle supply has led to higher demand and higher prices in the cattle industry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s good news for Wyoming ranchers, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis is the first run we\u2019ve had of really solid profits for a number of years,\u201d he told Cowboy State Daily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe have never seen cattle prices like this in history,\u201d added Berry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These profitable years for cattle will help ranchers build cash reserves, Driskill said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet beef prices remain high for consumers, and environmental factors play a role in the low cattle numbers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the USDA report released Jan. 30, total U.S. cattle stands at a historic low of 86.2 million head. Beef cows are down 1% compared with last year to 27.6 million \u2014 the lowest number since 1951. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The 2025 calf crop was 32.9 million head, the smallest total since 1941. With calf herds also down, fewer feeder cattle are expected in 2026, according to the report. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. cattle population has been on the decline for the past five or six years, according to Driskill. Multiple factors help explain the historic numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Drought is one of the key drivers of the decline, with states like Texas and California being especially hard hit. Drought threatens cattle food and water sources and causes feed costs to spike, which can force ranchers to sell off herds prematurely. Dried-up water sources and reduced pastures lead to smaller herd sizes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Another factor leading to the cattle population decline is that ranchers are selling the female cows they typically use for breeding, because prices are so high. With heifer calves worth more than they\u2019ve ever been, ranchers are choosing to sell rather than keep them for future breeding. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cKeeping replacements is significant, but how do you not sell a heifer calf for more than she\u2019s ever been worth?\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Driskill pointed to the lack of Mexican cattle being imported to the U.S. as another cause of the national population decline. The U.S. used to import hundreds of thousands of feeder cattle a year from Mexico, which contributed notably to the U.S. cattle population. But the outbreak of screw worm in Mexican cattle resulted in the country\u2019s cattle being taken off the U.S. market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThey\u2019re not waiting at the border,\u201d Driskill said. \u201cThe Mexican cattle have gone somewhere else.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n The typical rule of supply and demand is also at work. Berry said that over the past decade, ranchers have typically been breaking even on the prices they earn for their cattle. By winnowing down their herds, they have been able to earn more per head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIf I can run 70 cows and make some profit or run 100 cows and break even, there is really no reason to keep producing 100,\u201d Berry said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Lately, ranchers have been making good money. \u201cThey\u2019ve been getting paid for their product,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Added Driskill: \u201cYou want to be profitable.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n But US beef cattle being down 1% from last year is far from a dire situation, Berry said. Technology and genetic studies have allowed U.S. cattle ranchers to produce more red meat with less cattle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe genetic potential of these animals is being realized at levels that we have never seen before,\u201d Berry said. \u201cIt\u2019s the lowest cowherd ever, but surprisingly enough, not that much of a reduction in red meat production.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Calves are on average about 80 pounds at birth, Berry said. By the time they reach a year old, they weigh 1,400-1,500 pounds, meaning a calf has the genetic potential to gain three to four pounds every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat is genetic progress,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Berry said he expects the U.S. cattle population could be rebuilt within two years. But the market has to dictate it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The national average price per pound of ground beef was $6.69 as of December 2025, according to USDA data. Berry said he expects beef prices to increase \u2013beyond pure inflationary numbers \u2013 because of the current low supply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n With pork and chicken prices lower \u2013 pork chops averaged $4.30 per pound and boneless chicken breasts averaged $4.15 per pound in the same USDA data \u2014 Driskill questioned whether beef will remain \u201csomewhat of a specialty meat.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Like any commodity, overproduction leads to lower prices because demand decreases as supply increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat\u2019s what the marketplace does. It\u2019s human nature,\u201d Driskill said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Overproducing meat leads to a lack of profit for the ranchers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet the classic law of supply and demand will ultimately drive what the market does. If history is any indicator, the low supply trend won\u2019t last forever. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cUnless we do something different than we\u2019ve done for the past 100 years, we\u2019ll overproduce and the price will be driven back down,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Eventually, Berry said, the U.S. cattle herd will have to be built back up because demand will drive the market. Cattle ranchers will breed and produce more cattle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Berry said he predicts that the market will reach a point where herds will have to be built back up and, as a result, ranchers will once again hold on to their female calves for future breeding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe will overproduce until the price comes back down,\u201d Berry said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Driskill said Wyoming cattle ranchers have lived through a lot of tough years. The current low supply helps the existing ranchers, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rebuilding the cattle supply won\u2019t happen overnight, but, said Berry, it\u2019s far from an impossible endeavor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe pendulum swings,\u201d he said. \u201cRanchers will build their herds back up. It will happen.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This is inadequate reporting. The plandemic played a big role in the reduction of cattle herds, as rail companies reduced shipments of feed that made some large operations harvest their cattle (reduced prices for while). Back then it was reported as being 25%-50% reduction in shipments depending on rail service. And this was due to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-wyoming"],"blocksy_meta":[],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Jason","author_link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/author\/jturning\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15681"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15683,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15681\/revisions\/15683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Driving](\"https:\/\/cowboystatedaily.imgix.net\/cattle-rancher-hulett-wyoming-2-7-26.jpg?ixlib=js-3.8.0&q=75&auto=format%2Ccompress\")
![\"Cowhands](\"https:\/\/cowboystatedaily.imgix.net\/Cowhands-keep-an-eye-on-a-herd-of-Hereford-cattle-on-a-ranch-on-the-summer-range-in-Wyoming-George-and-Monserrate-Schwartz-via-Alamy-2.7.26.jpg?ixlib=js-3.8.0&q=75&auto=format%2Ccompress\")
The Numbers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Why The Decline?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A Rosy Picture?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Jeff](\"https:\/\/cowboystatedaily.imgix.net\/Jeff-Berry-2.7.26.jpg?ixlib=js-3.8.0&q=75&auto=format%2Ccompress\")
A Story Of Economics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A Bigger Herd To Come<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n