{"id":10608,"date":"2025-02-01T10:42:51","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T17:42:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/?p=10608"},"modified":"2025-02-01T10:43:54","modified_gmt":"2025-02-01T17:43:54","slug":"us-cattle-herd-shrinks-to-1951-lows-as-beef-crisis-deepens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/2025\/02\/01\/us-cattle-herd-shrinks-to-1951-lows-as-beef-crisis-deepens\/","title":{"rendered":"US Cattle Herd Shrinks To 1951 Lows As Beef Crisis\u00a0Deepens"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We saw the switch over at Sam&#8217;s Club yesterday, as we like the thinner cut ribeyes that come in a six-pack, and we paid $34 for what looked like an older pack. The newer packs of similar weight were in the $40&#8217;s. On the positive, the Sam&#8217;s Club executives who did away with human cashiers trying to push people to Scan and Go have pulled it back, as they had a couple human cashiers open. Consequently, a lot of the elderly with some younger people were struggling with self check out the last time we were there. Regarding beef prices, not mentioned was the 20% cuts to rail feed deliveries to the large operations during the effects of the COVID lockdown psyop, where a lot of beef went to the butcher and lowered prices for a while, where those herd numbers haven&#8217;t fully recovered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/us-cattle-herd-set-shrink-1951-lows-beef-crisis-deepens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/us-cattle-herd-set-shrink-1951-lows-beef-crisis-deepens<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ub-divider ub_divider ub-divider-orientation-horizontal\" id=\"ub_divider_f605fac7-f28e-4484-bc55-0e24c75790eb\"><div class=\"ub_divider_wrapper\" style=\"position: relative; margin-bottom: 2px; width: 100%; height: 2px; \" data-divider-alignment=\"center\"><div class=\"ub_divider_line\" style=\"border-top: 2px solid #ccc; margin-top: 2px; \"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>By Tyler Durden<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Update:<strong> USDA figures are in: the nation&#8217;s cattle herd has plunged to a 74-year low, totaling 86.7 million head.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*&nbsp; &nbsp;*&nbsp; &nbsp;*&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahead of this afternoon&#8217;s 3 pm est. USDA release of official <strong>US cattle inventory<\/strong> data, estimates compiled by Bloomberg forecast the herd will be at its <strong>lowest level in more than seven decades<\/strong>. The ongoing cattle supply crunch&nbsp;continues to push <strong>supermarket ground beef prices to record highs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bloomberg cited <strong>estimates from four analysts<\/strong> that expect the US cattle herd as of Jan. 1 will decline by .7% from one year ago. This would mark the <strong>lowest level since 1951 and extend the decline&nbsp;for a sixth straight year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/Snag_14db4e4e.png?itok=T6LEDAiJ\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_14db4e4e.png?itok=T6LEDAiJ\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have thoroughly documented the <strong>cattle crisis<\/strong> resulting in higher ground beef prices at the supermarket:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/cattle-futures-hit-new-record-high-polar-blast-set-hit-nations-beef-supply\">Cattle Futures Hit New Record High As Polar Blast Set To Hit Nation&#8217;s Beef Supply<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/us-cattle-crisis-worsens-nations-herd-size-continues-alarming-side-abyss\">US Cattle Crisis Worsens As Nation&#8217;s Herd Size Continues Alarming Side Into Abyss<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/tyson-foods-ceo-unsure-when-nations-collapsing-beef-herd-will-reverse\">Tyson Foods CEO Unsure When Nation&#8217;s Collapsing Beef Herd Will Reverse<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The average retail price for ground beef at the supermarket, calculated by USDA, recently <strong>topped&nbsp;$5.61 per pound<\/strong>.&nbsp;Before Covid, that prices was around $3.81.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/Snag_14dc0b35.png?itok=UoS4lf7b\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_14dc0b35.png?itok=UoS4lf7b\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Live cattle futures<\/strong> on the&nbsp;Chicago Mercantile Exchange have surged to record highs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/Snag_14eeda07.png?itok=cKJfY4Sr\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_14eeda07.png?itok=cKJfY4Sr\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest&nbsp;CFTC data via Bloomberg shows money managers boosted bullish live cattle bets by <strong>2,764 net-long positions to 161,970 last week, the&nbsp;most bullish in about five years &#8211; and nearing levels of the most bullish ever on record.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/Snag_14eba058.png?itok=f8IfahaS\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_14eba058.png?itok=f8IfahaS\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of all this,&nbsp;the nation&#8217;s&nbsp;<strong>cattle crisis is set to worsen<\/strong> with new pressures: President Donald Trump&#8217;s anticipated tariff war 2.0, which is expected to tighten domestic beef supplies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive,&#8221;&nbsp;Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, told Bloomberg in a previous report, adding,&nbsp;&#8220;Our fate&#8217;s pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the US for the next two to four years \u2013&nbsp;<strong>and it&#8217;s not looking good<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>About a year ago, the USDA projected that the cattle herd could begin&nbsp;rebuilding by 2025.&nbsp;However, that&nbsp;<strong>timeline has since shifted to 2027<\/strong>. The reason is primarily because of high interest rates and poor&nbsp;pasture conditions in the Midwest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/inline-images\/2024-12-09_12-34-10.png?itok=9_duoRM2\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Even as the beef industry has experienced periods of growth over the past decades, the&nbsp;<strong>animal count has dropped almost 40% since a peak in 1975<\/strong>. During the current downcycle, which started in 2020, the&nbsp;<strong>herd has been shrinking at the fastest pace since the big farm crisis of the 1980s<\/strong>,&#8221; Bloomberg noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>All things point to higher beef prices this year.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We saw the switch over at Sam&#8217;s Club yesterday, as we like the thinner cut ribeyes that come in a six-pack, and we paid $34 for what looked like an older pack. The newer packs of similar weight were in the $40&#8217;s. On the positive, the Sam&#8217;s Club executives who did away with human cashiers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health","category-world"],"blocksy_meta":[],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Jason","author_link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/author\/jturning\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10608"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10611,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10608\/revisions\/10611"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}