{"id":10261,"date":"2025-01-10T11:28:31","date_gmt":"2025-01-10T18:28:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/?p=10261"},"modified":"2025-01-10T11:28:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T18:28:31","slug":"california-based-insurer-crashes-amid-billions-in-l-a-area-fire-damage-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/2025\/01\/10\/california-based-insurer-crashes-amid-billions-in-l-a-area-fire-damage-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"California-Based Insurer Crashes Amid Billions In L.A. Area Fire-Damage Losses"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After 9\/11 their was a consultant with the government that looked at stock trades and came up with a system to analyze trading to determine when a major event was about to occur. With 9\/11, there were people that traded with advanced knowledge. I&#8217;d like to know who shorted or sold these insurance companies and when, and how much? And who buys after they have dropped in value and probably with advance knowledge of rate increase approval? And who is going to try and buy up a lot of this property after the people burned out have been adequately incentivized to move elsewhere. After this fiasco, who would trust rebuilding there? Or want to stay in such a mismanaged state? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/california-centric-insurer-crashes-los-angeles-area-fire-damage-losses-billions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/california-centric-insurer-crashes-los-angeles-area-fire-damage-losses-billions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-ub-divider ub_divider ub-divider-orientation-horizontal\" id=\"ub_divider_75a55cc0-03dc-4cbf-87f7-15268b75e3b0\"><div class=\"ub_divider_wrapper\" style=\"position: relative; margin-bottom: 2px; width: 100%; height: 2px; \" data-divider-alignment=\"center\"><div class=\"ub_divider_line\" style=\"border-top: 2px solid #ccc; margin-top: 2px; \"><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p>by Tyler Durden<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Out-of-control&nbsp;wildfires burning across the Los Angeles area continued Friday morning, destroying at least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/weather\/10-dead-10000-structures-burned-los-angeles-area-inferno-fire-damage-could-exceed-150\">10,000 structures<\/a> and causing <strong>estimated fire damage over $150 billion<\/strong>. Meteorologists have issued warnings for &#8220;<strong>critical red flag<\/strong>&#8221; conditions throughout the day, signaling that&nbsp;fire damage to homes and businesses will broaden into the weekend.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Insurance companies are bracing for the worst-case scenario<\/strong> as&nbsp;analysts at JPMorgan said Thursday that <strong>insured losses could top $20 billion<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>JPM&#8217;s&nbsp;Jimmy Bhullar said insured loss estimates could be revised even higher &#8220;if the fires are not controlled.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bhullar said&nbsp;losses would be &#8220;confined mostly&#8221; to <strong>homeowners insurers like Allstate, Travelers, and Chubb<\/strong>, but noted that commercial property insurers like American International Group and Kinsale Capital Group could also be exposed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Shares of&nbsp;Allstate dropped 5% in premarket trading, while&nbsp;Travelers fell 4%,&nbsp;Chubb -4%,&nbsp;AIG -3.5%, and&nbsp;Kinsale -1%.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/Snag_3e57a35b.png?itok=uLFHuV7j\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_3e57a35b.png?itok=uLFHuV7j\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shares in <strong>Mercury General<\/strong>, whose insurance organization is mostly centered in&nbsp;California, <strong>crashed 35% in premarket trading<\/strong>. About 80% of its premiums&nbsp;of $4.6 billion in 2024 were derived from the state, making it one of the <strong>most exposed insurers to the LA County fire<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/Snag_3e5a649e.png?itok=UhZN4-4r\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/Snag_3e5a649e.png?itok=UhZN4-4r\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;This would make this event significantly more severe than the 2018 Butte County Camp Fire, the highest insured-loss wildfires in California&#8217;s history previously,&#8221; with insured losses of roughly $10 billion, the analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a separate note,&nbsp;RBC Capital Markets&#8217;&nbsp;Scott Heleniak wrote,&nbsp;&#8220;We think these could be among the <strong>most expensive wildfires in U.S. history,<\/strong>&#8221; adding the estimated&nbsp;insured losses so far could easily exceed $20 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest <strong>AccuWeather estimate<\/strong> for the total damage and economic loss in LA County has surged to a <strong>staggering $135 billion to $150 billion<\/strong>, a massive increase from Wednesday&#8217;s estimate of $52 billion to $57 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of Friday morning, <strong>five&nbsp;separate fires<\/strong> were raging in the LA County area. Containment levels are very low.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/2025-01-10_07-08-15.png?itok=VHG60ISw\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2025-01-10_07-08-15.png?itok=VHG60ISw\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Catosphere bond news website&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.artemis.bm\/news\/jp-morgan-analysts-double-la-wildfire-insurance-loss-estimate-to-20bn\/\">Artemis<\/a> noted, <em>&#8220;We are still a long way off any loss estimates based on actual damage information, given the still-unfolding disaster situation in Los Angeles County.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After 9\/11 their was a consultant with the government that looked at stock trades and came up with a system to analyze trading to determine when a major event was about to occur. With 9\/11, there were people that traded with advanced knowledge. I&#8217;d like to know who shorted or sold these insurance companies and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-world"],"blocksy_meta":[],"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Jason","author_link":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/author\/jturning\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10261"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10262,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10261\/revisions\/10262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonsblog.ddns.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}